خط مشی گذاری تطبیقی پویا برای شهر پایدار: مورد تاکسی های اتوماتیک Dynamic adaptive policymaking for the sustainable city: The case of automated taxis

Introduction Modern cities are increasingly confronted with growing externalities of road traffic – congestion, fatalities, consumption of scarce space, use of energy, and emissions. To a large extent, these problems can be attributed to an inefficient use of userowned vehicles and to driver errors. However, recent technological developments provide an opportunity to reduce these externalities significantly, while improving the driver and passenger experience. The general impacts of developments in information and communications technology on transport are summarized by Banister and Stead (2004). In this paper, we focus on technological developments that can contribute to these benefits—in particular, automated vehicles (AVs) that require no drivers (because they can maneuver independently in real traffic situations using on-board sensors, cameras, maps, and associated software), and smartphones (for travelers to request rides from wherever they may be, and to pay for the rides). ‘Automated taxis’ (ATs), as we are calling this emerging new mode of local passenger transport, is based on the definition of ‘real-time ridesharing’ of Chan and Shaheen (2012) and an extension of the definition of ‘ride-sourcing’ of Chen (2015). It is also called ‘‘autonomous taxis” (Bischoff and Maciejewski, 2016), ‘‘self-driving taxis” (Correia et al., 2016), an ‘automated universal taxi system’ or ‘dial-a-pod’ (Enoch, 2015). It provides customers with O-D transportation in an automated vehicle, in real time, at their desired departure time. Ride-matching software automatically matches cars to riders, and notifies the rider’s smartphone. Payments are charged directly to the rider’s credit card, which is stored electronically. GPS devices automatically guide the car. Automated taxi companies operate in a similar way to traditional taxi companies; the main distinction is that technology takes over the trip reservation, dispatching, and taxi driving tasks. Widespread implementation of ATs could potentially lead to significant economic, environmental, and social benefits (Fagnant and Kockelman, 2015a,b; International Transport Forum, 2015; McEvoy, 2015). Among the economic benefits are a dramatic reduction in traffic accidents, reduction in traffic congestion, and savings in parking costs and land use. Among the likely environmental benefits are reductions in emissions and fuel consumption. And, among the privately realized benefits are travel time reductions, and savings in the cost of vehicles, fuel, insurance, and parking. All vehicle driving tasks are executed automatically by the automated vehicles. Hence, traveling could also become more comfortable and more convenient compared to today’s driving. However, there may be some disbenefits as well. The introduction of ATs might lead to small increases in vehicle miles traveled (Gucwa, 2014; Childress et al., 2015), and significant increases if cities scale down or eliminate their public transport systems (International Transport Forum, 2015). Also, their introduction is likely to cause significant labor issues, as there will be no more employment for taxi drivers. Anderson et al. (2016) describe the ‘‘promise and perils of autonomous vehicle technology”. Chapter 2 of their report discusses these ‘promises and perils’ in terms of the social costs of driving, the effects of AVs on safety, congestion, mobility for those unable to drive, land use, energy and emissions, costs, and ‘disadvantages’ (e.g., increased vehicle miles traveled, loss of parking income, effect on public transit, effect on jobs, and effect on automobile insurance companies).