Confronting climate change : risks, implications and responses

Foreword ix Acknowledgements xi List of Reviewers xiii 1 Living in a Warming World 1 Irving M. Mintzer I The Science of Climate Change 2 Linkages Between Global Warming, Ozone Depletion, Acid Deposition and Other Aspects of Global Environmental Change 15 Paul J. Crutzen and Georgii S. Golitsyn 3 Climate Sensitivity, Climate Feedbacks and Policy Implications 33 Martin I. Hoffert Triad Strategy for Improving Climate Prediction (Syukuro Manabe) 51 4 Lessons from the Ice Cores: Rapid Climate Changes During the Last 160,000 Years 55 Hans Oeschger and Irving M. Mintzer 5 Changes in Climates of the Past: Lessons for the Future 65 Michael B. McElroy 6 Indices and Indicators of Climate Change: Issues of Detection, Validation and Climate Sensitivity 85 Tom M. L. Wigley, Graeme I. Pearman and P. Michael Kelly II Impacts of Global Climate Change 7 Future Sea Level Rise: Environmental and Socio-Political Considerations 97 Richard A. Warrick and Atiq A. Rahman 8 Effects of Climate Change on Food Production 113 Martin L. Parry and M. S. Swaminathan 9 Effects of Climate Change on Shared Fresh Water Resources 127 Peter H. Gleick 10 Effects of Climate Change on Weather-Related Disasters 141 James K. Mitchell and Neil J. Ericksen 11 The Effect of Changing Climate on Population 153 Nathan Keyfitz Vlll III Energy Use and Technology 12 The Energy Predicament in Perspective 163 John P. Holdren 13 Electricity: Technological Opportunities and Management Challenges to Achieving a Low-Emissions Future 171 David Jhirad and Irving M. Mintzer 14 Transportation in Developing Nations: Managing the Institutional and Technological Transition to a Low-Emissions Future 195 Jayant Sathaye and Michael Walsh IV Economics and the Role of Institutions 15 The Economics of Near-Term Reductions in Greenhouse Gases 217 Eberhard Jochem and Olav Hohmeyer 16 "Wait and See" versus "No Regrets": Comparing the Costs of Economic Strategies 237 R. K. Pachauri and Mala Damodaran 17 International Organisations in a Warming World: Building a Global Climate Regime 253 Kilaparti Ramakrishna and Or an R. Young 18 Modifying the Mandate of Existing Institutions: NGOs 265 Navroz K. Dubash and Michael Oppenheimer 19 Modifying the Mandate of Existing Institutions: Corporations 281 Peter Schwartz, Napier Collyns, Ken Hamik and Joseph Henri The Lesson of Continuous Improvement (Art Kleiner) 292 20 International Trade, Technology Transfer and Climate Change 295 Konrad von Moltke V Equity Considerations and Future Negotiations 21 Sharing the Burden 305 Michael Grubb, James Sebenius, Antonio Magalhaes and Susan Subak 22 Climate Negotiations: the North/South Perspective 323 Tariq Osman Hyder 23 Shaping Institutions to Build New Partnerships: Lessons from the Past and a Vision for the Future 337 William A. Nitze, Alan S. Miller and Peter H. Sand Annexes 351 Glossary 355 Index 365