Risk assessment and decision making in business and industry : a practical guide 2nd ed
- نوع فایل : کتاب
- زبان : انگلیسی
- مؤلف : Glenn R Koller
- ناشر : Boca Raton, FL : Chapman & Hall/CRC
- چاپ و سال / کشور: 2005
- شابک / ISBN : 9781584884774
Description
INTRODUCTION; What Companies Really Want to Do; Practical Risk Assessment; You Can Do It; ABOUT RISK AND UNCERTAINTY; Various Views on the Subject - Einstein Was Never Going to Get There; Definitions of Risk and Uncertainty; Two Values - The Expected Value of Success (EVS) and the Expected Value for the Portfolio (EVP); Risk Assessment and Risk Management; What Questions Do I Ask and How Do I Integrate the Information?; RISK ASSESSMENT: GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BENEFITS; Why Risk Assessment?; Common Language; Holistic Thinking; Awareness; Consider Range of Possibilities; Establish Probabilities; Communication with Customers and the Public; Probabilistic Branching; Relationships between Variables; Linking of Disciplines; Checklist - Do Not Take It for Granted; Updating Estimates; To What Types of Problems Can Risk Assessment Be Applied?; RISK ASSESSMENT - A PROCESS; Risk Assessment - The Process; The Time It Takes to Do It Right, and When to Get Started; What Is Typically Done; What Is Not Typically Done; What to Provide; Size Does Not Matter (Not That I Was Worried about That); Stakeholders; THE PERCEPTION FROM WITHIN - WHY THIS CAN BE SO DARN HARD TO IMPLEMENT; Simple Resistance to Change and Momentum of Old Ways; Learning How the Organization Really Works; Practitioners Who Have Been Doing It for Years Are Difficult to Change - Newcomers Are Easier to Deal With; Not Invented Here; Instant Access to Executives - If You Are from Outside, You Are Smarter/Better; Turf Wars; Experts Who Are Not; Management That Has Limited Appreciation and the Deterministic Mindset; Coming from the Right Place; Establishing Credibility So You Are Not Just Another Voice in the Wilderness; Time for Preparation of the Organization - Who Benefits?; Ramifications of Implementing a Probabilistic Risk System; For This to Be Effective, Every Part of the Company Must Participate; Not Just One Time - This Must Be Done Over and Over, Like a Diet; CONSISTENCY - THE KEY TO A RISK PROC.
Building upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Second Edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (R/U) process implementation. This comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of R/U: general concepts, implementation processes, technical aspects, and examples of application. Each section provides practical guidance, combining technical information with advice on how to implement R/U techniques and processes in real-world corporate environments. Following an examination of general principles involved in quantitatively assessing risks and their impact on value, the book describes the two main probabilistic measures of project value - Expected Value of Success (EVS) and the Expected Value for the Portfolio (EVP). The text clearly demonstrates how these metrics are used in individual-project and portfolio management. By presenting concepts in layman's terms and fully integrating advice related to technical and human characteristics of R/U-related corporate life, this book serves as a complete primer for professionals in any business environment. What's New in the Second Edition: Provides guidance for implementation of R/U processes in modern corporations Offers a crucial breakthrough by defining the terms "risk" and "uncertainty" in ways that can be applied in all aspects of science and business Explores real-world impediments to process change and implementation Addresses R/U from a corporate decision-maker's perspective, detailing how to employ R/U to set budgets, manage portfolios, value investments, and execute other critical tasks.
