Environmental risk analysis

Chapter 1. Introduction to Environmental Problems: Transport, Burial, Monitoring, Spillage, Leakage, and Cleanup 1 -- 1.1. Transport Problems 6 -- 1.2. Burial/Storage Problems 6 -- 1.3. Monitoring Problems 7 -- 1.4. Spillage Problems 8 -- 1.5. Leakage Problems 8 -- Chapter 2. Contracts and Decisions 11 -- 2.1. General Development 11 -- 2.2. Parameter Uncertainties 13 -- 2.3. Numerical Example 16 -- Appendix 2A Some Properties of a Log-Normal Distribution 18 -- 2A.1. Exact Statements 18 -- 2A.2. Approximate Statements 20 -- 2A.3. Multiple-Parameter Distributions 21 -- Chapter 3. Transport and Burial Hazards of Radioactive Waste 23 -- 3.2. Risk and Catastrophe in the Transport of Radioactive Waste 24 -- 3.3. Statistical Measures 25 -- 3.4. Analysis of Alternate Actions: Limited Spill 28 -- 3.5. Analysis of Alternate Actions: Catastrophic Spill 31 -- 3.6. Parameter Uncertainty Effects 33 -- 3.6.1. Means and Variances 34 -- 3.6.2. Relative Importance 35 -- 3.7. Relative Contribution of Uncertain Parameters in Subsurface Hydrology 36 -- 3.7.2. Physical Problem 37 -- 3.7.3. Theoretical Framework 40 -- 3.7.4. Results and Discussion 42 -- Appendix 3A Approximations for Cumulative Probability 45 -- Chapter 4. Utility Theory and Working-Interest Optimization in a Hazardous Waste Transport and Burial Opportunity 47 -- 4.2. Working-Interest Evaluation 48 -- 4.2.1. Exponential Utility Function 50 -- 4.2.2. Parabolic Utility Function 53 -- 4.3. Applications 54 -- Appendix 4A Limiting Expressions for Certainty Equivalent 59 -- Appendix 4B Parabolic Approximation to Exponential Utility 62 -- Chapter 5. Catastrophic Events, Insurance, and Unilateral Regulatory Changes 65 -- 5.2. Catastrophic Loss in Exploration Assessments 67 -- 5.3. Catastrophic Loss after Oil Is Found 71 -- 5.4. Insurance for Hydrocarbon Exploration and Development Risks 73 -- 5.5. General Catastrophic Loss Conditions 74 -- 5.5.1. Mathematical Considerations 74 -- 5.5.2. Numerical Illustration 78 -- 5.6. Insurance Coverage After Oil is Found 79 -- 5.6.1. General Considerations 79 -- 5.6.2. Numerical Illustration 81 -- 5.7. Insurance against Catastrophic Loss for Environmental Projects 82 -- 5.8. Optioning against Potential Regulatory Changes 85 -- 5.9. Risk Retention 86 -- 5.9.1. Evaluation of Risk Reserve Fund 88 -- 5.9.2. Projects Awarded at One Time Exposed to Liability L 88 -- 5.9.3. Projects Awarded at Different Times Exposed to Liability L 90 -- 5.9.4. Projects of Variable Magnitude Awarded at Different Times and Exposed to Liability L 93 -- 5.9.5. Numerical Illustrations 95 -- Chapter 6. Limiting Risk Using Fractional Working Interest 99 -- 6.2.1. Cozzolino's Formula 101 -- 6.2.2. Hyperbolic Risk Aversion 104 -- 6.3. Numerical Illustration 105 -- 6.3.1. Results from Cozzolino's Formula 106 -- 6.3.2. Results from the Hyperbolic Formula 110 -- 6.3.3. Comparison of Results 110 -- 6.4. Negative Expected Value 113 -- Chapter 7. Limiting Risk Within a Consortium and Foreign Government Projects 117 -- 7.2. RAV Estimates with Uncertainties 118 -- 7.2.1. General Considerations 118 -- 7.2.2. Numerical Illustrations 119 -- 7.3. Evaluation of Participation in a Consortium of Companies 128 -- 7.4. Evaluation of Participation in Foreign Government Projects 132 -- Chapter 8. Corporate Involvement in Multiple Environmental Projects 139 -- 8.2. Deterministic Portfolio Balancing 140 -- 8.2.1. Relative Importance 140 -- 8.2.2. Profitability 140 -- 8.2.3. Costs 141 -- 8.3. Budget Constraints 142 -- 8.3.1. High Budget 142 -- 8.3.2. Low Budget 142 -- 8.4. Finding the Best Working Interests 142 -- 8.4.1. Parabolic RAV Formula 144 -- 8.4.2. Exponential RAV Formula 146 -- 8.5. Deterministic Numerical Illustrations 148 -- 8.5.1. A Budget of $20 Million 149 -- 8.5.2. A Budget of $11 Million 149 -- 8.5.3. A Budget of $4 Million 150 -- 8.6. Probabilistic Portfolio Balancing 150 -- 8.7. Probabilistic Numerical Illustrations 151 -- 8.7.1. Variable Value 151 -- 8.7.2. Variable Value and Cost 154 -- 8.7.3. Variable Value, Cost, and Success Probability 155 -- 8.7.4. Very Low Budget 155 -- 8.7.5. Low to High Budget Comparison 157 -- 8.8. Comparison of Parabolic and Exponential RAV 161 -- 8.8.1. Deterministic Results 161 -- 8.8.2. Statistical Results 162 -- 8.9. Transport and Burial of Wastes 164 -- 8.10. Multiple Projects 169 -- 8.11. Exposure and Expenditure Constraints 171 -- 8.11.1. Corporate Exposure 171 -- 8.11.2. Cost Expenditure 172 -- 8.12. Optimal Working Interest 172 -- 8.13. Parabolic Utility Function 175 -- 8.14. Application 171 -- Appendix 8A Weighted RAV Optimization 180 -- Chapter 9. Apportionment of Cost Overruns to Hazardous Waste Projects 183 -- 9.2. Project Costs and Cost Overruns 184 -- 9.3. Numerical Illustrations 186 -- 9.3.1. Identical Projects 186 -- 9.3.2. Unequal Projects 187 -- 9.4. Arbitrary Numbers of Projects 188 -- Chapter 10. Bayesian Updating of Toxic Leakage Scenarios 193 -- 10.2. Theoretical Considerations 193 -- 10.3. General Concepts of Bayesian Updating 194 -- 10.4. Numerical Illustration 196 -- 10.4.1. Updating the Likelihood of a State Being Correct 196 -- 10.4.2. Updating the Probability of Leakage 197 -- 10.5. Bayesian Decision Criteria 199 -- 10.5.1. Optimal Expected Value Bayes Decision 199 -- 10.5.2. Expected Opportunity Loss 203 -- 10.5.3. Influence of the Length of the Observation Record on Decision Making 205 -- 10.5.4. Influence of the Form of the Loss Function on Decision Making 206 -- Chapter 11. Multiple Transport of Hazardous Material: Probabilities of Profitability 211 -- 11.2. Statistical Measures for Individual Transport Trips 211 -- 11.2.1. Statistics for a Single Event 212 -- 11.2.2. Statistics for Multiple Events 214 -- 11.2.3. Bayesian Updating of Probabilities 215 -- 11.2.4. Residual Trips and Probability Updating 217 -- 11.3. Budget Buyout Considerations 217 -- 11.4. Numerical Illustrations 218 -- 11.4.1. Multiple Transport before a Catastrophe Occurs 218 -- 11.4.2. Ship Disaster and Probability Updating 219 -- 11.4.3. Buyout Price and Minimum Acceptable Chance 219 -- Chapter 12. Maximizing Profit for a Toxic Waste Site Monitoring System 223 -- 12.2. Scientific Considerations 224 -- 12.3. Financial Considerations 225 -- 12.4. Numerical Illustration 228 -- Chapter 13. Option Payments for Future Information 231 -- 13.2. Maximum Option Payments 232 -- 13.2.1. Mean Value Assessment of Option Costs 234 -- 13.2.2. Probabilistic Assessment of Option Costs 235 -- 13.3. Numerical Illustrations 236 -- 13.3.1. Mean Value Assessment of Option Costs 237 -- 13.3.2. Probabilistic Assessment of Option Costs 237 -- Chapter 14. Worth of Resolving Uncertainty for Environmental Projects 241 -- 14.2. Representation of Risk and Uncertainty 244 -- 14.3. Application to the Question: Is Value Added? 247 -- Chapter 15. Scientific Uncertainty in Environmental Problems: Models and Data 251 -- 15.2. Continuous Measurements of Hydraulic Head 253 -- 15.2.1. Weighting Factors 253 -- 15.2.2. Parameter Determination 255 -- 15.2.4. Spatial Changes and Partitions 260 -- 15.3. Discrete Measurements of Hydraulic Head 261 -- 15.4. Stochastic Determinations 262 -- 15.4.1. General Considerations 262 -- 15.4.2. Parameter Determination 263 -- 15.4.3. Weighting Factors 265 -- 15.4.4. Numerical Illustation 266 -- 15.5. Averaging Measures for Hydrodynamic Problems 268 -- 15.5.1. Specific Hydrodynamic Flow Model 269 -- Appendix 15A General Development of Procedures for N Models 276 -- 15A.1. Continuous, Perfect Measurements 276 -- 15A.2.1 Discrete, Perfect Data 277 -- 15A.3. Stochastic Measurements 278 -- Appendix 15B Individual Parameter Determination Procedure 281 -- Appendix 15C Measures of Model and Observational Mismatch 283 -- Chapter 16. Human, Water, Chemical, Biological and Radiocative Risks 287 -- 16.2. Natural Environmental Problems 288 -- 16.3. Anthropogenic Environmental Problems 289 -- 16.3.1. Examples of Anthropogenic Environmental Problems 290 -- 16.3.2. Resources and Environmental Issues 297 -- 16.4. Remediation of Environmental Problems 300 -- 16.5. Rules for Addressing Environmental Problems 301 -- Appendix 1. Phase I, II, and III Site Assessments 305 -- Appendix 2. Brief Overview of the Federal Statutes of the United States 379.