Prediction of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus based on a twenty-year follow-up of the Ventimiglia heart study
- نوع فایل : کتاب
- زبان : انگلیسی
- مؤلف : Davide Noto , Angelo Baldassare Cefalu` ,Carlo Maria Barbagallo, Angelo Falletta , Antonina Ganci ,Michelangelo Sapienza , Giovanni Cavera, Isabella N
- چاپ و سال / کشور: 2011
Description
novel algorithm to predict incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (iT2DM)is presented considering data from a 20-year prospective study in a Southern Italy population. Eight hundred and fifty-eight out of 1,351 subjects (24–85 years range of age) were selected. Incident type 2 diabetes was diagnosed in 103 patients in a 20-year followup. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) and the Framingham Offspring Study simple clinical model (FOS) have been used as reference algorithms. Two custom algorithms have been created using Cox parametric hazard models followed by PROBIT analyses: the first one (VHSRISK) includes all the study subjects and the second one (VHS95RISK) evaluates separately subjects with baseline fasting blood glucose (FBG) above/below 5.2 mmol/L (95 mg/dL). The 44 iT2DM cases below 5.2 mmol/L of baseline FBG were predicted by high LDL cholesterol, metabolic syndrome (ATPIII criteria), BMI[30 kg/m2, and high factor VII activity. The 59 cases above the FBG threshold were predicted by FBG classes, hypertension, and age. ROCareas for iT2DMprediction were: FINDRISC = 0.759, FOS = 0.762, VHSRISK = 0.789, and VHS95RISK = 0.803. In a Mediterranean population, the use of a custom generated algorithm evaluating separately low/high FBG subjects improves the prediction of iT2DM in subjects classified at lower risk by common estimation algorithms.
Received: 10 March 2011 / Accepted: 6 June 2011 Springer-Verlag 2011 Acta Diabetol DOI 10.1007/s00592-011-0305-
