مدیریت استراتژیک صنعت پتاس در روسیه Strategic management of the potash industry in Russia

1. Introduction The use of fertilizers increased vastly over the twentieth century, and fertilizer use is estimated to continue to grow also in the near future (Enger, 2010). The global scope of the fertilizers production industry means that global market is a competitive environment and its development, which currently ensures steady growth of demand for fertilizers, is subject to a number of macroeconomic factors. These factors include population growth, reduction in arable land per capita, growth of per capita GDP and greater purchasing power in developing countries, and increasing demand for alternative energy sources (biofuels) (Cherepovitsyn, 2012). For instance, global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7 billion in 2012. It is expected to keep growing, where estimates have put the total population at 8.4 billion by mid-2030, and 9.6 billion by mid-2050 (Population Reference Bureau 2016). The change in the use of agricultural land in recent years has been significant (from 0.69 ha in use per person in 1960 to 0.47 in 2015) and it is expected to be 0.19 ha in use per person in 2050 (Bruinsma, 2009). World GDP per capita has grown from 450 US dollars in 1960 to 10, 000 US dollars in 2015 (World Development Indicators, 2016). Biofuels production based on agricultural commodities increased more than fivefold from 2000 to 2015 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2016). Limited supply caused by resource exhaustibility also influences the situation on the market. Global consumption of fertilizers in the agricultural years (beginning of July–end of June) 2009–2016 is presented in Fig. 1. The dynamic growth of consumption of fertilizers is seen in all three segments. The greatest increase is observed for nitrogen fertilizers, which are the most commonly used fertilizer worldwide. Table 1 presents main indicators of fertilizer market development for 2013 and 2017. Fig. 1 shows that in the recent years the annual growth rate of fertilizer consumption has stabilized at 1–2%. The data in Table 1 show that, in the short term, a surplus of supply over demand is foreseen for all segments of the industry despite the attractive fundamentals. This oversupply is connected with production growth and active development of world production capacity. The most significant surplus is observed for potash fertilizers and the estimated surplus of supply over demand is expected to reach 30% of world production by 2017 where North America, Eastern Europe and Central Asia would account for 70% of world incremental potash supply between 2015 and 2020.