تعداد بسیار زیاد دکترا؟ استدلال نامعتبر برای کشورهای توسعه یافته سیستم های علمی و دانشگاهی: مورد پرتغال  Too many PhDs? An invalid argument for countries developing their scientific and academic systems: The  case of Portugal

1. Introduction Disparities in economic development between countries have highlighted differences that cannot be attributed to natural resources and demographics alone (Phelps, 2013). These differences draw attention to the role that skilled people play as critical resources in fostering science, innovation, competitiveness and development in global knowledge economies (De, 2014). The relevance of knowledge and of skilled people has brought to the policy agenda of governments worldwide the need to modernize science and higher education systems and institutions to cope with the complex economic, societal, cultural and scientific challenges that modern societies face (Scott, 2000). This includes doctoral training because PhDs have a substantial ability in recombining existing knowledge and articulating it in novel ways, paving the way for a multitude of innovations (Forfás, 2009), even if they represent a relatively small proportion of skilled workers. Doctorate holders are expected to acquire a combination of technical and soft skills, transferable competencies, behaviors and high levels of adaptability during their studies (Durette et al., 2014). These competences remain unchanged, despite the fact that doctoral training has been undergoing transformation in recent times (Wildy et al., 2013). However, concurrent with recent changes in doctoral training, claims have been put forward that “too many PhDs” are being trained (Cyranoski et al., 2011). These claims have been fueled to a large extent by the media, based on data of mature science and technology systems2 (Larson et al., 2014; Stephan, 2012a). The rapid increase in contingentstaff at US and UK universities is one of the most visible facets of this phenomenon, and it is undisputable that, in many scientific systems, doctoral graduates are facing increasingly precarious employment prospects (Stephan, 2012b). This has become an alarming situation for the doctoral graduates themselves and for the sustainability of these scientific systems (Schwartz, 2014). However, to what extent is this an issue that pertains to scientific systems still in their developing stages? This is a matter of key importance because discourses of “too many PhDs”, which originate from mature scientific systems, are often taken as truths in systems where such claims may not apply. Moreover, they may lead to misguided policies that hamper the development of science in those countries developing their scientific systems.