یک رویکرد جدید برای پیش بینی فناوری امیدوار کننده از طریق تجزیه و تحلیل ثبت اختراع  A novel approach to forecast promising technology through patent analysis

1. Introduction Promising technology is a key technology that underlies the steady growth of companies and countries. Its influence on a company’s investments and production and on overall national industries is significant. Additionally, a promising technology is changing quickly and unexpectedly. As such, companies and countries that focus rapidly on promising technologies to lead the industry are able to increase their competitiveness such that it becomes directly connected to survival (Jeong and Yoon, 2015). Hence, properly forecasting promising technologies is integral for decision makers of both corporations and countries. Upon further examination, first, it was found that the establishment of an efficient research and development (R&D) strategy establishment is possible. Deriving a comprehensive notion that can satisfy the needs of a future envisioned society as well as the market, forecasting promising technology is being recognized as an essential stage in the R&D process (Albright, 2002). Specifically, a national R&D agenda budget can be in- fluenced by the political environment during the R&D planning stage (Halal et al., 1998). This greatly increases the anxiety towards failure regarding future R&D endeavors. Accordingly, the allocation of an R&D budget should be based on objectivity and validity, as to allow for adequately selecting and focusing on a promising technology sector. In other words, by exploring a future environment that humans may face, forecasting promising technology can present a direction on the right path for the early stages of R&D. Next, the autonomously led development of products and services becomes possible. As an output of R&D, the developed technology acts as a firm foundation for the development of future products and services (Wang et al., 2015). That is, being able to forecast products and services that can lead the future allows for heightened competitiveness compared to rival players.