تعیین کمیت نقاط کور و سیگنال های ضعیف در قضاوت اجرایی: ادغام سازمان یافته قضاوت متخصص در روند توسعه  سناریو  Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment  into the scenario development process

1. Introduction Expert judgment is a crucial determinant of most scenario planning processes (Bolger & Wright, 1994; Bradfield, Wright, Burt, Cairns, & Van Der Heijden, 2005; Jungermann & Thüring, 1987). However, eliciting and structuring this input to the scenario planning process is challenging, and is often subject to biased judgement (Bradfield et al., 2005; Meissner&Wulf, 2013; Schoemaker, 2004; Wack, 1985). Thus, decision makers often misperceive or misinterpret changes in the firm’s periphery. Such misinterpretations in judgment are called blind spots (Zajac & Bazerman, 1991), while misperceptions of seeminglyrandom and unconnected information at the periphery are known as weak signals (Schoemaker& Day, 2009). Both can impair judgment and reduce the quality of the strategic decisions obtained as part of the scenario process (Hodgkinson, Bown, Maule, Glaister, & Pearman, 1999; Schoemaker, Day, & Snyder, 2013). Research on the elicitation of expert knowledge suggests that, when integrating and aggregating expert judgment, quantitative methods in particular can be used effectively to support the decision making and planning processes (Meyer&Booker, 1991; Morgan, 2014; Morgan& Henrion, 1990). This quantification of expert judgment regarding developments and the associated uncertainty has been linked to the reduction of group think or similar group biases resulting from dominant participants in group discussions (Aspinall, 2010). In the context of scenario planning, a variety of different tools, such as the Delphi analysis (Bolger & Rowe, 2014), are used to quantify and structure expert judgment (Soste et al., 2015; Warth, von der Gracht, & Darkow, 2013). However, it still remains difficult for organizations to analyze the judgments of internal and external experts systematically, as these groups often evaluate environmental change differently (Bonaccio & Dalal, 2006). In particular, an analysis of the resulting weak signals and blind spots is an issue that has not been discussed previously in most of the literature on scenario planning and expert knowledge elicitation.